As I wait for Clinton to speak in a firehouse in northwest Indiana, let's roll through the possibilities.

First, the expectations are that Clinton is the favorite in Indiana and Obama has the edge in North Carolina.  Let's review the possibilities:

* Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina - The End.  The race is over.  The chances for this a month ago were good, but Obama has dropped in the polls in Indiana.

* Clinton wins IN and NC - The Nightmare Scenario for the Obama campaign that could actually give Clinton an opening to win the nomination.  It still seems unlikely to occur, with NC being the hurdle.

* Clinton wins IN, Obama wins NC - The most likely result if you believe the polls and the experts.  But then comes the "Margin of Victory" and how that is interpreted by the media and the campaigns.  Here are several different scenarios from that:

* Obama wins more delegates overall - it shouldn't be a surprise if that happens.  Obama has been stronger in North Carolina, which has more delegates.  If Hillary loses ground to Obama, I'd bet there will be some voices that will say, "Thank you very much, but the race is over, Senator Clinton."

* Hillary wins more delegates overall - Hillary stays in for all the caucuses and primaries.

* A dead-even split of delegates - Hillary stays in the race for sure.

If there were a betting window in the lobby of my hotel, I'd probably look for a parlay on Clinton wins Indiana, Obama wins North Carolina, Obama wins more delegates and Hillary stays in the race.

The fact that Clinton is in Indianapolis tonight and Obama is in Raleigh, North Carolina is very telling.  Just like two weeks ago when Hillary was in Philadelphia and Obama had a rally in Indiana.

A colleague of mine told me yesterday from North Carolina that he sensed that the Obama people are a bit "scared" there.  I'm not so sure about that, but the results will be very interesting, indeed.

There were two new polls out yesterday in North Carolina which showed the race tightening more than I would have imagined.  One had Obama up 3 points (in the margin of error) and the other had Obama ahead by five.

In Indiana, one poll had Hillary up 12 points, the other had her lead at only four. 

What does my gut tell me?  Clinton wins handily in Indiana, I'll say by seven points.  Is she on the verge of an upset in North Carolina??  I really would be surprised by that.  If Obama wins North Carolina by less than five points, that's almost a moral victory for Clinton.